Russia-linked disinformation campaigns targeting elections in Estonia and Latvia have focused less on individual candidates and voting procedures and more on security concerns surrounding the war in Ukraine, NATO and border protection, according to a new report.
The report by London-based threat intelligence company Refute found that false narratives circulated before and during Estonia’s September presidential election and Latvia’s October parliamentary vote were designed to create confusion, weaken trust in institutions and deepen political divisions.
“Russia is deploying disinformation as a deliberate instrument designed to disorient citizens, shape public debate and deepen divisions ahead of elections,” said Tom Garnett, co-founder and chief executive of Refute.
The campaigns exploited genuine concerns about Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATO activities, drones and security along the Baltic borders. False claims were connected to real events and existing public debates, making them appear more credible.
Refute said the narratives were distributed not only among audiences in Latvia and Estonia but also internationally, with the apparent aim of influencing perceptions of Baltic security abroad.
The report identified multiple versions of the same material that were adapted for different audiences and platforms. One video appeared in eight versions, including edits aimed at Arabic- and Spanish-speaking audiences and versions containing AI-generated footage.
Some claims were also published on fake websites in several languages. Refute said this gave the narratives a longer lifespan because the stories could be cited and redistributed after social media platforms had removed or labelled the original posts.
Fake NATO deaths claim
One campaign in Latvia involved a fabricated video presented as a Euronews report. It falsely claimed that a Ukrainian soldier had killed three NATO servicemen during the Baltic Trust 26 military exercise before taking his own life ahead of Latvia’s October 3 vote.
The claim circulated from August 14 to September 6. Dozens of accounts promoting it reached a combined audience of more than 1.85 million people, according to Refute.
Latvia’s National Armed Forces quickly rejected the claim as a coordinated disinformation campaign. However, the story was translated into several languages, repackaged by influencers and circulated within pro-Russian online networks.
Euronews confirmed that it had neither produced nor published the video.
Fake Epstein story targets Estonia
In Estonia, a fake website designed to resemble the legitimate EUobserver outlet published a fabricated article linking outgoing President Alar Karis and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda to Jeffrey Epstein’s trafficking network.
The website copied genuine articles and journalist biographies to appear authentic. The false story was also promoted through an AI-narrated video and more than a dozen social media accounts with a combined following of about 780,000, according to the report.
Another fake website imitating US defence publication The Defense Post falsely claimed that a Ukrainian drone had entered Estonian airspace and damaged two Portuguese F-16 fighter jets near Ämari Air Base.
The claim drew on genuine incidents involving drones in Baltic airspace but falsely attributed the alleged damage to Ukrainian activity.
Refute said the campaigns sought to weaken confidence in Ukraine, NATO and European institutions while raising doubts about Baltic security.
Vlad Galu, Refute’s co-founder and chief technology officer, said the campaigns demonstrated increasingly systematic efforts to target information environments in the Baltic region and beyond.
Latvia and Estonia, both NATO and European Union members and strong supporters of Ukraine, remain particularly exposed to Russian-linked information operations.
