Public health experts across Europe are warning that this year’s influenza season could be more severe than usual, as vaccination rates remain low and early signs from Asia and the southern hemisphere suggest a stronger wave of infections.
According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), flu activity across the EU and surrounding countries remains “low but increasing,” as expected for mid-October. However, officials fear that a harsh winter and sluggish immunisation rates could create the conditions for widespread outbreaks in the months ahead.
“Europe’s flu season usually runs from November to May, but patterns have become less predictable since the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Colin Russell, professor at Amsterdam University Medical Center and chair of the European Scientific Working Group on Influenza (ESWI). He noted that last year’s flu season was unusually large following a shorter, milder one in 2023-24.
ECDC data shows that 11 European countries are already reporting sporadic flu activity, with the United Kingdom seeing early rises in infections, particularly among children. “It’s the time of year when everything starts,” said Dr Anna Odone, director of the School of Public Health at the University of Pavia in Italy.
Experts say the severity of this year’s flu season will depend on three key factors: how many vulnerable people there are, which flu strains dominate, and the environment. A long, cold winter could encourage indoor gatherings, making it easier for the virus to spread.
Health authorities are closely watching for outbreaks in schools, elderly care facilities, and prisons — areas where people are in close contact — to gauge when the season officially begins. Last year, influenza A (H1 and H3) and influenza B/Victoria were the dominant strains across Europe.
Clues from abroad suggest potential trouble. Australia and New Zealand recently saw a surge in the H3N2 strain toward the end of winter, while Japan declared a nationwide flu epidemic more than a month earlier than usual. Still, experts caution it’s too soon to know which strains will prevail in Europe. “We’re in wait-and-see mode right now,” Russell said.
While influenza rarely causes serious illness in healthy adults, it remains a significant public health concern, causing an estimated 27,600 deaths across the EU annually. Vaccination remains the most effective protection, but uptake has fallen sharply in many countries.
The EU target for flu vaccination coverage is 75%, yet most countries remain below 50%. Only Denmark (76%), Ireland (75%), Portugal (71%), and Sweden (68%) met or approached the target last season.
“Immunisation has social and political connotations,” Odone said. “It’s not easy to reach the high coverage levels needed to control influenza.”
The ECDC urged national governments to rebuild public trust in vaccines, improve access, and emphasise timely vaccination — especially for high-risk groups such as the elderly, pregnant women, children under five, and healthcare workers.
Russell advised people not to wait until flu cases surge: “If you’re not vaccinated yet, now is the time to do it.”
