As Europe approaches the start of flu season, health experts are warning that this year’s outbreak could be particularly severe due to low vaccination rates and early signs of strong influenza activity in other parts of the world.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) reported that while flu-like illnesses remain relatively low across most countries, cases are beginning to rise — a trend typical for this time of year. Europe’s flu season usually runs from mid-November to late May, though experts note that traditional seasonal patterns have shifted since the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Last year’s flu season was unusually large,” said Professor Colin Russell of Amsterdam University Medical Center and chair of the European Scientific Working Group on Influenza (ESWI). “We’re now in a wait-and-see mode to determine how this one develops.”
ECDC data shows that 11 countries have already reported sporadic flu activity, while health authorities in the United Kingdom have observed rising cases, particularly among children. According to Dr. Anna Odone, Director of the School of Public Health at the University of Pavia in Italy, the severity of this year’s flu season will depend on several key factors — the vulnerability of the population, the dominant strain of the virus, and environmental conditions. “If it’s a long, cold winter, people will spend more time indoors, which helps the virus spread,” she said.
Globally, influenza trends are being closely monitored for early warnings. Japan recently declared an influenza epidemic five weeks earlier than usual, while Australia and New Zealand have seen a surge in the H3N2 strain of influenza A. These developments could foreshadow Europe’s upcoming flu landscape, though experts caution that it is still too early to identify which strains will dominate across the continent.
Influenza remains a significant public health concern, contributing to around 27,600 deaths annually across the EU and infecting up to one in five Europeans each winter. While the illness often causes mild symptoms in healthy individuals, it can be dangerous for older adults, young children, and those with chronic conditions.
Vaccination remains the most effective way to prevent serious illness, yet flu vaccination rates across Europe have fallen short of the EU’s 75% target. Most countries reported coverage well below 50% last season, with Denmark, Ireland, Portugal, and Sweden among the few nearing the goal.
The ECDC has urged local authorities to “strengthen public trust, improve access, and ensure that parents and caregivers are well-informed” about the importance of timely vaccination. Health officials recommend that high-risk groups — including the elderly, pregnant women, young children, and healthcare workers — receive their flu shots as soon as possible.
“The easy answer is, if you’re not vaccinated yet, go get vaccinated now,” Russell said. “It takes about two weeks for your body to build protection, and flu season is already on its way.”
