Real wages in Europe are projected to rise slightly in 2026 compared to 2025, with gains expected across most countries despite lingering economic challenges. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), eurozone wages have largely recovered from the sharp declines seen during the high-inflation period of 2022, as nominal pay has outpaced price growth. This has allowed Europeans to stretch their earnings further, bringing real wages close to pre-2021 levels.
Although international organisations such as the OECD have yet to release official 2025 wage data, surveys provide an early indication of trends. The Employment Conditions Abroad’s (ECA) 2025–26 Salary Trends report shows that by the end of 2025, real salaries are expected to rise in 23 of 25 European countries surveyed. Romania and Ukraine are projected to see declines of 0.9% and 3.2%, respectively, while growth elsewhere ranges from 0.2% in Austria to 5.1% in Turkey.
Turkey stands out with the highest real wage growth in 2025. A nominal salary increase of 40% combined with an IMF inflation forecast of 34.9% results in a 5.1% real rise, making Turkey the leading performer. Growth is also strong in Bulgaria and Hungary. However, analysts caution that Turkish workers remain far below previous levels of purchasing power after years of inflation consistently outpacing wage increases. “Turkey stands out from other countries in Europe as the salary rises and inflation levels are much higher,” said Steven Kilfedder, head of product analytics at ECA.
Looking ahead to 2026, Turkey is expected to continue leading the region, with real wages projected to grow 8.1%. The median increase across the 25 countries is forecast at 1.7%, up from 1.4% in 2025. Eastern European economies are predicted to outperform Western peers due to faster economic growth and higher productivity, according to ECA.
Among Europe’s major economies, France is expected to see the highest real wage growth, followed by Germany, Italy, and the UK. The UK, while projecting the largest nominal salary rise at 3.6%, will still record the lowest real increase among the major economies at 1.1% due to relatively higher inflation. Other Western European countries, including Spain and the Netherlands, will also lag behind the regional average, facing challenges such as sluggish productivity growth, cautious employers, and tight fiscal conditions.
Across the survey, projected growth exceeds 1% in all countries except Greece, where it is expected to reach 0.9%. The findings are based on a survey of 200 multinational companies conducted between August and October 2025, which asked about implemented salary increases for 2025 and expected rises for 2026. ECA combined these responses with IMF inflation forecasts to calculate real wage growth.
The report suggests that while real wages are gradually improving across Europe, disparities remain, with Eastern European countries leading the recovery and some Western economies continuing to face slower gains.
