Airfares from Europe to the United States have fallen to their lowest levels since before the COVID-19 pandemic, as a decline in European travel demand drives prices down across key transatlantic routes.
According to preliminary data from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), overall overseas arrivals to the United States declined by 2.8% year-on-year in May. Travel from Western Europe—traditionally one of the strongest inbound markets—dropped by 4.4%, offset only slightly by a 4.6% rise in travel from Eastern Europe.
A mix of economic and geopolitical factors has been attributed to the downturn in European interest in visiting the U.S., including a strong dollar, recent U.S. political rhetoric, and stricter border policies. The NTTO reported that travel from Western Europe had already plunged 17% year-on-year in March, underscoring the continued hesitancy among travellers.
Airfare data reflects this shift. Analytics firm Cirium found that average round-trip economy fares for more than 50 major routes between the U.S. and Europe fell 7% year-on-year in the first quarter. Some routes saw far steeper reductions—for example, tickets between Atlanta and London dropped by 55%.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains subdued. Forward bookings for July are down 13% year-on-year, according to OAG Aviation. Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, said 2025 is shaping up to be a “tougher year to make money on transatlantic routes” due to lower European demand and slower outbound growth from the U.S.
In response, airlines are cutting prices to stimulate demand. Hopper, a travel booking platform, reports that round-trip fares from the U.S. to Europe this summer are down 10% from last year, averaging $817 per ticket—roughly on par with pre-pandemic summer 2019 prices.
Major carriers, including Lufthansa and Air France KLM, are already feeling the impact. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr noted that the airline expects weaker demand in the third quarter, while Air France KLM CEO Ben Smith acknowledged a “slight pullback” in transatlantic traffic, prompting price cuts to maintain load factors.
Despite the dip in European inbound travel, U.S.-originating demand for Europe remains strong. Delta Air Lines said 80% of its long-haul demand originates from the U.S., where fares remain “significantly higher.” United Airlines also confirmed that while international bookings from Europe declined 6% in Q1, strong demand from American travellers helped offset the loss.
Lufthansa, among others, is now shifting its marketing focus to U.S. travellers, hoping to fill seats with outbound demand even as Western European interest fluctuates. According to Hopper, international departures from U.S. airports are up 4.3% this summer.
“We feel really good about the transatlantic market,” said Devon May, CFO of American Airlines, speaking at a transportation industry event in May.
