A report from construction consultancy Mitchell McDermott has raised concerns about the stagnation of housing delivery in Ireland, predicting that output will fall well short of government targets. The firm forecasts that fewer houses will be built over the next two to three years than in 2023, with housing output this year potentially dropping to just 32,000 units.
The report’s findings come in the wake of disappointing figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) that showed only 30,330 homes were built in 2023, far below the government’s target of 40,000. One key indicator of future housing output, planning permissions, also paints a grim picture. Last year, just 35,000 homes were granted planning permission, marking a significant drop from 41,000 in 2022 and one of the lowest figures in the past six years.
Paul Mitchell, one of the authors of the report, warned that unless drastic measures are taken, Ireland’s goal of 300,000 new homes by 2030 will be nearly impossible to achieve. He pointed to a major issue: the “high mortality rate” of housing applications, particularly in the fast-track planning system, which accounts for about 50% of housing permissions. Between 2018 and 2024, nearly 200,000 units were submitted for planning under Strategic Housing Developments (SHDs) and Large-scale Residential Developments (LRDs). However, nearly 42,000 of those units (21%) were refused, 27,000 (13.5%) faced judicial reviews, and 11,000 (5.5%) are still awaiting decisions.
Ultimately, just over half of the proposed units, 112,000, received usable permissions. Even more concerning is the fact that 29% of these permitted units have yet to be constructed or even started.
Mitchell called for a closer examination of the barriers that are slowing housing development. “Given the scale of our housing crisis, it’s vital we understand why the attrition rate is so high and address the blockages in the system,” he said. He added that to meet the target of 50,000 units annually, planning applications for 125,000 units need to be submitted each year.
The report also highlighted a troubling decline in apartment construction, with only 14,000 planning permissions granted for apartments in 2023, down from 21,000 the previous year. Mitchell attributes this drop to changes in government policy, particularly the ban on Build-to-Rent schemes and the introduction of rent caps. These measures, he argues, have deterred international investment, which was crucial for financing large-scale apartment projects.
Mitchell McDermott also noted the crucial role of the public sector in keeping housing numbers up, particularly in 2023 when the private sector pulled back. Without the intervention of bodies like the Land Development Agency (LDA) and local authorities, between 10,000 and 15,000 units would not have been built.
The report concludes that to address the housing crisis, Ireland needs to revise its policy on Build-to-Rent schemes, reintroduce incentives for international investment, and ensure better coordination between various public agencies to support housing development.
