The European Union’s total fertility rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than six decades, dropping to 1.34 live births per woman in 2024, according to Eurostat data. The decline has been dramatic, with rates almost halving since 1964, when the average EU woman had 2.62 children.
Fertility rates vary widely across the continent. Malta records the lowest at 1.01, while Bulgaria leads the EU at 1.72. Among larger economies, France has the highest fertility rate at 1.61, closely followed by the United Kingdom at 1.56, though England and Wales report a lower rate of 1.41. Germany sits slightly above the EU average at 1.36, while Spain and Italy register some of the lowest levels at 1.10 and 1.18, respectively. In the Nordic countries, Iceland tops the region with 1.56, while Finland has a lower rate of 1.25.
Experts point to a complex set of factors behind the decline. Dr. Julia Hellstrand from the University of Helsinki said, “Explaining cross-national differences in fertility remains challenging, particularly because many factors that previously explained variation between countries appear to have weakened in recent years.” Even countries with strong family policies, such as the Nordics, have experienced significant drops, indicating that policy support alone does not fully account for the trend.
A World Health Organization Europe spokesperson highlighted broader socio-economic influences, including housing costs, childcare availability, mortgage considerations, and the challenge of balancing work and family life. “Globally, access to education and contraception, along with these socio-economic factors, influence reproductive decisions,” the spokesperson said.
The decline has been especially sharp in some countries over the past decade. Turkey experienced the steepest drop, with its fertility rate falling from 2.17 in 2014 to 1.48 in 2024, a 32 percent decrease. Finland and Lithuania also recorded declines of 0.46 points, while Ireland and Sweden fell by 0.42 and 0.45 points, respectively. In contrast, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Portugal, and Bulgaria saw modest increases during the same period.
Delayed childbearing and rising parenting standards contribute to the trend. “People have become accustomed to providing their children with decent living conditions and a good education,” Prof. Eva Beaujouan from the University of Vienna said. “When faced with uncertainty about the future and personal financial instability, prospective parents may feel unable to offer the best opportunities to more than one child, or may choose to wait.”
The decline is largely driven by fewer first births, which account for roughly 82 percent of the reduction. Survey data also indicate that childfree ideals are becoming more common, although many individuals still end up having fewer children than they ideally want.
Despite the historic decline, experts caution that short-term fluctuations, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, may not fully reflect long-term trends in lifetime fertility. European countries continue to grapple with the social, economic, and policy challenges that shape reproductive choices, suggesting the continent’s population dynamics will remain a key issue for years to come.
